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Forum Name: old JBR threads
Topic ID: 169
Message ID: 31
#31, Maikai: Figuring it Out
Posted by Dave on Jul-27-02 at 02:11 PM
In response to message #30
Maikai: There is no compelling reason to believe that one of the profilers would have been able to "figure it out," as you put it. As you yourself pointed out, the number 118 has been linked to many other sources. Why do you think that it would have occurred to John Douglas or any other profiler that this number had anything to do with them, that is the profilers or the FBI? The profiling method will usually end up with something like 35-year-old white male loner, former aronist and animal torturer.<P>The most serious problem that I see with profiling is that it is based on correlations. Profilers have interviewed many offenders, then they correlated the attributes. They look for commonalities and develop statistics for these. If a perpetrator now uses these findings, currently written up in many books and articles, to commit a crime according to the template provided, the so-called "profiling" becomes a self-fullfilling prophecy. It may occur to the profiler that their findings are being utilized to create the appearance of something that they are pre-disposed to look for (that is, staging), but I seriously doubt that it would ever occur to the profiler that <b>he</b> or law enforcement in general, not the victim or the victim's family, is the target.<BR> <BR>As far as tauting notes to the FBI, etc. I don't see how you or anyone else who has no knowledge of the perpetrator can predict any kind of behavior. Attempts to do this will result in exclusion of potential suspects.<BR> <BR>