TGRB stands for The Good Reverend Bayes and was the hat I posted under, but I never considered Eustace a suspect.

Thomas Bayes was a mathematician/priest in the middlle of the 17th century who discovered what is known as Bayes Theorem, a mathematical equation, formula and concept on the odds of probability using only the evidence at hand. He is revered all over the world as one of the great mathematicians ever. When he died his theory died with him. NASA rediscovered it in the 50's and it runs their space voyages. I am told Bill Gates is a sworn Bayesian.

I can't read math so the equation is of no use to me, but I can understand the concept. It is mighty. Two of the things it tells you is, one, you cannot hold beliefs. In fact you must do just the opposite:
UPDATE YOUR BELIIEFS EVERYTIME A NEW PIECE OF EVIDENCE COMES IN!

Secondly, it tells you:
YOU MUST INCLUDE ALL RELEVANT CIRCUMSTANCES AND INFORMATION.

Case in point: Linda Arndt took one look at John and immediately "Knew," who committed this crime. She has never once updated that belief, she still thinks he did it. Bayes Theorem would tell you her chances of solving this case are zero or less.

She broke both laws of Bayes when you think about it. Many people did the same thing with Patssy when she appeared on TV the first time.

There is much more but too long to go into here, but I think you get the idea.

The goal of Bayes thinking should lead you to the Law of Total Probability, but you have to think to get there.

I have used Einstein's question everything, Richard Feymann's all possible paths and Sherlock Holmes, look at the scene to aid me.

"The worse thing you can do in a criminal investigation is to have a theory before all the evidence comes in. The theory must come last."

Another person who broke all of the above rules is McCrary.

Help! I'm typing and I can't shut up!