I was thinking more along the lines of what the note, itself, sounds like it is saying, irregardless of whether the offender was lucky or unlucky, above or below average intelligence, etc. However, I understand the relevance in terms of super planning as opposed to just getting lucky. I think this crime would have been a challenge for any police department, but especially so, apparently, for the BPD. I think we can hand them the credit for making what I would consider negligent mistakes in the investigation, as Margoo pointed out, and possibly letting this offender slip through their hands.

There are a lot of things the offender could not have known would happen in the aftermath of the crime, but I'm sure he felt he could count on the fact that the crime would devastate John Ramsey and that it wouldn't be that hard to kill a small child. That's all I can see the guy really wanted out of the crime.